Council Races
I currently see this set up: [I'm mentioning races that are competitive, or what can be done to make them so.]
[Race: (potential voting pattern)
description]
Council A: (Dem)
Guthrie has exponentially more cash-on hand than Biggs. Unless Biggs can tear apart Guthrie topic-to-topic (and Dion WILL delcare everything he had a hand in), District A will stay blue. Dion has a great word-of-mouth campaign and an equally good amount of Republican support; enough to overcome the undecided all voting for Biggs.
Council B: (Toss-up/Likely Republican)
Val Twanmoh has gone against Chenowith twice and is hoping, "...third time's the charm..." [actual quote]. Interesting factoid: Val gained 4,000+ more votes in 2002 than in 1998. If she repeats and gains HALF of that, she wins. She has a serious financial shortfall compared to Chenowith. Also consider Bittner, but not as a winner. The Green party can consistently cannibalized the Democratic vote. After 12 years with little to show for it except, "I have unfinished business..." Chenowith might have a fight on her hands.
Council C: (toss-up/too close to call)
There was MASSIVE voter apathy in the 2002 general election. Little over 16K votes with over 22K possible voters. This ALL depends on the GOTV efforts. Word has come to me that Morrissey-Ward is hungry for victory. Such candidates have won on sheer will alone. McMahan has what I consider a 'minor' cash advantage.
Council D (Toss-up/Lean Republican)
I can not go so far as to say that Chad Shrodes has a cash advantage, but it could be the only one he has. If any election has an obligatory popularity contest, this is probably it. Republicans call Shrodes the, "...Ultimate Switch-o-Crat..." and I haven't seen someone YET come forward to say "I like Terence Cox". A good ground campaign and GOTV effort will win this seat.
Council E (Lean Dem)
I call this a 'lean Dem' race only because of registration figures (which badly need to be updated). If Wheeler can get a good GOTV and convince some 'undeclared' voters to side with him, the race will be Wheeler's, despite Slutzky's $15,000 advantage.
Council F: (Likely Dem)
More dems than repubs voted in the primary by almost 2 to 1. Lisanti is driven and has actual motivation to win. Lisanti also has an easy-to-find website. I tried for five minutes to Google a Correri webpage and I did not find much. Mary Ann has a strong ground campaign and good HdG support. Correri needs to get a message out if he wants to win.
Council President: (Republican)
Now that Boniface is the clear competitor, White presently has a clear target. If White wants to make the race competitive, he has to step up fundraising (no candidate for this position can win without it), get a solid ground campaign, or find the world's best GOTV effort if he wants the Council President job. This is liable to be a very uphill race for White. Meanwhile, if Boniface doesn't want to lose his foothold, he must not accept developer contributions...or open his mouth. Boniface can in theory not say anything at all, or even lift a finger, or spend money to win Council President.
[Race: (potential voting pattern)
description]
Council A: (Dem)
Guthrie has exponentially more cash-on hand than Biggs. Unless Biggs can tear apart Guthrie topic-to-topic (and Dion WILL delcare everything he had a hand in), District A will stay blue. Dion has a great word-of-mouth campaign and an equally good amount of Republican support; enough to overcome the undecided all voting for Biggs.
Council B: (Toss-up/Likely Republican)
Val Twanmoh has gone against Chenowith twice and is hoping, "...third time's the charm..." [actual quote]. Interesting factoid: Val gained 4,000+ more votes in 2002 than in 1998. If she repeats and gains HALF of that, she wins. She has a serious financial shortfall compared to Chenowith. Also consider Bittner, but not as a winner. The Green party can consistently cannibalized the Democratic vote. After 12 years with little to show for it except, "I have unfinished business..." Chenowith might have a fight on her hands.
Council C: (toss-up/too close to call)
There was MASSIVE voter apathy in the 2002 general election. Little over 16K votes with over 22K possible voters. This ALL depends on the GOTV efforts. Word has come to me that Morrissey-Ward is hungry for victory. Such candidates have won on sheer will alone. McMahan has what I consider a 'minor' cash advantage.
Council D (Toss-up/Lean Republican)
I can not go so far as to say that Chad Shrodes has a cash advantage, but it could be the only one he has. If any election has an obligatory popularity contest, this is probably it. Republicans call Shrodes the, "...Ultimate Switch-o-Crat..." and I haven't seen someone YET come forward to say "I like Terence Cox". A good ground campaign and GOTV effort will win this seat.
Council E (Lean Dem)
I call this a 'lean Dem' race only because of registration figures (which badly need to be updated). If Wheeler can get a good GOTV and convince some 'undeclared' voters to side with him, the race will be Wheeler's, despite Slutzky's $15,000 advantage.
Council F: (Likely Dem)
More dems than repubs voted in the primary by almost 2 to 1. Lisanti is driven and has actual motivation to win. Lisanti also has an easy-to-find website. I tried for five minutes to Google a Correri webpage and I did not find much. Mary Ann has a strong ground campaign and good HdG support. Correri needs to get a message out if he wants to win.
Council President: (Republican)
Now that Boniface is the clear competitor, White presently has a clear target. If White wants to make the race competitive, he has to step up fundraising (no candidate for this position can win without it), get a solid ground campaign, or find the world's best GOTV effort if he wants the Council President job. This is liable to be a very uphill race for White. Meanwhile, if Boniface doesn't want to lose his foothold, he must not accept developer contributions...or open his mouth. Boniface can in theory not say anything at all, or even lift a finger, or spend money to win Council President.
posted by Geoff | 9:20 AM
4 Comments:
I'm sorry but your assessments being based strictly off of past voting patterns leave out so much more important issues. District B is safe, C is actually safer, D is very safe, and E is very safe. Slutsky has been able to stay clean of the annexation issue and was not hurt by his fundraising issues too badly. I think the Democrat's only chances are in A and F. Biggs could win, but doubtful, and Correri could win, but again, doubtful.
You state one fact for one district.
You state no reasons for why these other districts are as safe as you think they are. I openly welcome a calm discourse from commenter to blogger, but my post states fact and opportunity.
I also state how most candidates can/should do to win. Short of the annexation issue, you are merely repeating what I said.
I mean it. If you wish to refute my research (by the way, almost all professional polling groups use prior voting patterns in their stats.), trump me with polling data.
Show me I'm wrong and I'll admit it, all you've done is rehash what I said.
One other thing; I'm willing to put my name on this, you are staying anonymous. Just pointing that out.
Wow, you seem to be taking it very personally and I am sorry about that. I did not mean it that way, I think you do a great job on this blog, I just disagreed with your assessment.
You list 3/6 districts as toss up and 3/6 districts as going for the Dem yet the race of Council president is solidly Republican? That doesn't make sense because all of the parts that make up the whole lean Dem (or are competetive) according to your analysis but the sum of those parts is not competetive.
The Democratic Party can not continue to re-hash losing candidates and think that they will win. Twanmoh and Ward have become synonymous with losing. The party needs to have new candidates running, and candidates running that really want the job.
Do not go by past numbers or voting trends. Really look at the incumbent's recognition in the community at large. Do the local folks embrace the incumbents or is there a chance for a knock off. I do not think that there is a resentment there of the people against Chenowith or Slutsky. In the open seats, Ward has been rejected already. A new candidate with a fresh slate would of been considered. Winning up North? I think you agree it is very unlikley but instead you still consider it a tossup leaning Republican. I think you are looking at this a little too much like a fan of Democrats and not a realist.
If you had not used toss-up as much, maybe you would have been believeable. But instead, you couldn't give Republicans a single strait win except for the Presidency (again the logic doesn't make sense there) and it just becomes more of a wish list rather than a real assessment.
Note: I get a lot of "Yuo havve bad spellling" emails and not a lot of accountable comments, and perhaps that has to do with the format of blogspot.
Would it be easier if I moved over to wordpress where comments can be 'logged on' without creating accouts? [I'm willing to do that if it makes the site easier to read]
I used "toss-up" because of the intracacies(sp?) involved. Leonard Wheeler overwhelmed the Central Committee election vote when trends showed him likely to come in last. The only poll for the county that I could find showed Wheeler ahead, but my understanding is that he's had a serious false-start. If Wheeler can put the screws to his opponent, then the race would be a toss-up.
The A and F are unarguably likely Dem/leaning Dem.
Going through past ballot records show Twanmoh and Morrissey-Ward running multiple times. I give a candidate three tries at any one office before I'll push them to stop. [This started with a certain person who kept trying to run for congress, when that would be three times in six years, not three in twelve years]
Val? This is her last shot in my opinion. If she can't win this time, I would advise she drop. It would take some serious persuation for me to believe she could win in a fourth try (but perseverance is the American way).
I agree, the Democratic Central Committee should have done a better job recruiting stronger candidates. That's why I made a run for it. As Democrats, what we can do is try to find people who can make strong runs for office.
However, this being the present, I'm going to support my Party's nominees. I can see why you would call this a wish list. I should have also stated that there is huge apathy in many councilmanic districts. B & E to name two.
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