what do I see?
I look at the races pre-primary. I see Kane and Chenowith being the big contested race that gets my interest. Many are focusing on Council President, and I don't blame them; three contenders and all three say they're qualified. Harcodem will not speculate on the outcome of County Council President.
District B is Chenowith vs. Kane vs. Walters , with the general looking like Twanmoh(D) vs. (Repulican Primary Winner) vs. Bittner (G). Now I don't know abotu you all, but I look forward to seeing finance reports from everyone's respective camps and making a call based off of that.
Other interesting races?
District A- Dion Guthrie said he'd have a website for his campaign by June. Guess what? None.
That may have been something you could have gotten away with in the last election cycle, but that's just not something you ignore these days. If Guthrie wins the primary, he has a good chance of winning the general. He has enough support from both sides in district A to win, but if one of the other challengers wins the primary, I will swear to you that that person will be against the current the entire wayand would be lucky to win the general.
More later on... keep your eyes open
District B is Chenowith vs. Kane vs. Walters , with the general looking like Twanmoh(D) vs. (Repulican Primary Winner) vs. Bittner (G). Now I don't know abotu you all, but I look forward to seeing finance reports from everyone's respective camps and making a call based off of that.
Other interesting races?
District A- Dion Guthrie said he'd have a website for his campaign by June. Guess what? None.
That may have been something you could have gotten away with in the last election cycle, but that's just not something you ignore these days. If Guthrie wins the primary, he has a good chance of winning the general. He has enough support from both sides in district A to win, but if one of the other challengers wins the primary, I will swear to you that that person will be against the current the entire wayand would be lucky to win the general.
More later on... keep your eyes open
posted by Geoff | 12:42 PM
5 Comments:
So far, by your logic of he who has the biggest warchest wins:
Ehrlich will crush O'Malley.
Simms will come in third.
Franchot wins comptroller.
Steele is your next senator.
As far as District B, I took the liberty of searching each candidates finance report by last name.
Twanmoh has $100.
Chenowith $22,000.
Bittner and Kane have not had their reports posted yet. And Walters does not even have a finance account registered with the board of elections. Is it even legal for that guy to be running?
I'd like you to kindly reevaluate my post. Do I even state the "he who has more cash wins" theory?
I know that I couldn't find it.
What I was analyzing was the moeny spent by the republican candidates.
I looked up Twanmoh's as well as the Republican and Bittner.
Here's what I found (figures rounded to nearest $100)
Twanmoh: $10,800
Chenowith: $22,000
Kane: n/a
Walters: n/a
Bittner: $250
Note: I'm wagering that Kane and Bittner both filed Affidavits of under $1,000, so they were exempt from filing.
What I'm looking for is who is spending what. I had theorized that Kane, Chenowith and Walters would 'cannabalize' each other and Twanmohwould put up a fight and win that district. Forgive me for being optimistic.
Fortunately, I didn't bank on that. Were I Twanmoh, I would point out Chenowith's hypocrasies in office
[ex: She stated that each councilperson should primarily focus on/"stay in" their own district...until Dion Guthrie wants a part of Rt. 40 rexoned, then she can't stay away from criticsm]
Here's something else...
Jacobs Slate:$4,000 (spent about $27K)
Kilby: $5,000 (loan)
That senate race will either be
a)an interesting, tough race for both candidates
or
b)a sad, crushing defeat from the hands of an incumbant
I didn't know about the $1,000K rule.That may be. And not to be knit-picky, but I've looked at all the candidates in most the races today. David Craig's report hadn't yet been posted when I checked. I seriously doubt he has less than a thousand, but we could be optimistic.Ann Helton has $72K.
My real reason for replying is to ask you to clarify your last post.
I didn't get it. The second one.
Oh. And you spelled incumbent wrong. And money.
I'm just having fun. Sorry.
I do enjoy reading your blog though.
Oh. Cochran hadn't posted his cash. But again, I'd bet he has over a thousand.
Tritt has $2200 on hand.
Bane has $37,700.
I thought that was interesting.
G-nite.
You said - " Now I don't know abotu you all, but I look forward to seeing finance reports from everyone's respective camps and making a call based off of that."
That says to me that you will make a judgement based on money.
BTW, you spelled about wrong. I'm just saying. :)
:P Spelling aside...(which, I you will not see spelling error anymore..I hope)
There's a lot of access I have to certain campaigns in this county. There's a lot of access I don't have. By the quote you gave back to me, I'm just saying I have information to analyze.
By no means does having more money make you an automatic winner.
And thank you for the compliment. I know absolutely no web code, so I don't know who, if anyone, visits this blog.
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